Sunday, September 1, 2019

Can $5 Trillion Economy Dream will ever come true?

Dr Manmohan Singh, the noted Indian economist and politician, was a member of the Upper House of Parliament from Assam for five consecutive terms from 1991 to 2019. 

He served India in key positions: RBI governor, finance minister and then as its Prime Minister for two consecutive terms between 2004 and 2014.

When his term in the Rajya Sabha ended on 14 June 2019, his party, the Congress, was unable to renominate him because the Congress did not have the required strength to send him to the Rajya Sabha from Assam again. Time and political fortunes had changed dramatically. Power had slipped out of Congress’ hands. It could not take Assam taken for granted any more. There was no other Rajya Sabha vacancy left.Manmohan Singh

A Rajya Sabha by-poll was necessitated in Rajasthan due to the death of its member Madan Lal Saini. Then the Congress nominated him  while the BJP did not field any candidate against him. Under such conditions, Dr Manmohan Singh was elected unopposed to the Upper House in August 2019.

Also Read : Manmohan Singh elected unopposed to Rajya Sabha

Political fortunes have swung in such a way that today the BJP can be termed as the strongest and biggest political party in the world. It can afford to concede one Rajya Sabha seat.

Later Manmohan Singh’s security cover was downgraded from the SPG (Special Protection Group) rank to Z+ by the Ministry of Home Affairs. It was reviewed as a routine professional procedure, based on the threat perception.

Also Read : Manmohan Singh’s Security Cover Degraded

Within 15 days of his election to the Rajya Sabha, the former Prime Minister returned his opponent’s, the BJP’s, favour in his own characteristic way. He severely criticised the BJP for its economic measures.

Dr Manmohan Singh’s recent statement urging the government to “put aside vendetta politics, and reach out to all sane voices to steer our economy out of a man-made crisis” caused ripples in India’s eco-political circles.

The current finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman reacted: “Has he said that? All right, thank you, I will take his statement on it. That is my answer,” she said. Her statement came while she was addressing the media after an interaction with tax officials at an event in Chennai.Nirmala Sitharaman

Dr Manmohan Singh blamed the Centre’s “all-round mismanagement” for the economic slowdown in the country. He said the Modi government’s policies are resulting in massive jobless growth.

“Rural India is in terrible shape. Farmers are not receiving adequate prices and rural incomes have declined. The low inflation rate that the Modi government likes to showcase comes at the cost of our farmers and their incomes, by inflicting misery on over 50% of India’s population,” Singh said.

He said the state of the economy is deeply worrying and insisted that last quarter’s GDP growth rate of 5% signals that the country is in the midst of a prolonged slowdown.

India has the potential to grow at a much faster rate but all-round mismanagement by the Modi government has resulted in this slowdown, he said in a statement.

“It is particularly distressing that the manufacturing sector’s growth is tottering at 0.6%. This makes it very clear that our economy has not yet recovered from the man-made blunders of demonetisation and a hastily implemented GST,” Singh said.

The former Prime Minister said domestic demand was depressed and consumption growth has hit an 18-month low. The nominal GDP growth is at a 15-year low. “There is a gaping hole in tax revenues. Tax buoyancy remains elusive as businessmen, small and big, are hounded and tax terrorism continues unabated. Investor sentiments are in the doldrums. These are not the foundations for economic recovery.”

However, the fact of the matter is : ‘There has been a sharp increase in filing returns by August 31, 2019. So far 56.5 mn returns have been filed for the assessment year 2019-20. The record – 196 returns per second- was attained mainly because the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) had taken a number of initiatives like offering pre-filled forms as well as guidance to taxpayers through social media. e-filing of returns rose 32-63% compared to the corresponding days a year ago.

When asked if the Centre acknowledges that there is an economic slowdown, Sitharaman said, “I am meeting industries and taking their inputs, suggestions on what they would want and expect from government, I am responding to them. I have already done this twice. I will do it more number of times.”

On Friday, Sitharaman announced the consolidation of 10 state-run lenders into four bigger banks. Currently, there are 18 public sector lenders, compared to 27 in 2017. There will be only 12 after the mergers.

Punjab National Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce and United Bank of India will combine to form the nation’s second-largest lender. State Bank of India (SBI) is the country’s largest lender.

The second merger will be between Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank, which will make it the fourth-largest public sector lender. Union Bank of India will amalgamate with Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank and Indian Bank will merge with Allahabad Bank.

It was the present Modi government which aimed to put India as a $5 Trillion Economy. 

Eco-observers view Dr Manmohan Singh statements as a mild attempt to score some mileage for the Congress. He has only criticised the government but did not make any suggestion. Throughout his 10-year tenure, the former PM rarely expressed his opinion. He was famous for his silence. Analysts have shown surprise that at last, he has found some voice now, it is a miracle. But they add that as an eco-expert he is not saying anything different than media. He does not see that this slow down is a global phenomenon. The economies of China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa are also under stress. In India, though, the inflation is still under control. At least the Modi government is able to run a solid and corruption-free government.inflation

The Modi government is doing everything possible to rectify the blunders committed during the 10-year rule of the UPA. Bad loans during that period have today hampered the NPA of the banks. The Modi government strengthened infra, reduced bureaucracy, eliminated terror attacks, cut corruption, caught the corrupt and above all it did what the earlier governments could not do in 70 years. It deleted the article 370.

With all such big disruptive decisions taken by the present government, the economy was bound to take a hit in the short term, but Dr Manmohan Singh could not see that it is headed for a better future. Only time will tell whether the $5 Trillion Economy Dream will ever come true!



source https://ncairways.co/5-trillion/

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